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TIME: Almanac 1990
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1990 Time Magazine Compact Almanac, The (1991)(Time).iso
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1990-09-22
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ESSAY, Page 94What If the Soviet Union Collapses?By David Aikman
The year is 1992. Gorbachev has been overthrown, and the Soviet
empire has fallen apart. The Russian heartland is ruled by an
ultra-nationalist military dictatorship, the Baltic republics by
Catholic radicals, and Central Asia by fundamentalist emirates.
Tanks patrol the streets of Moscow, and throughout the country a
fearful, starving populace wreaks revenge on former Communist Party
members, Jews and intellectuals.
A sneak preview of the latest Tom Clancy effulgence? Hardly.
This frightening scenario of Soviet collapse, titled
Nevozraschenets (The Non-Returnee), was published last June in
Iskusstvo Kino, the official journal of the Soviet movie industry.
Its appearance reflects a mood of unprecedented pessimism and
self-doubt, in which intellectuals and political figures have been
speculating somberly about the catastrophes that could befall the
Soviet Union if perestroika falls apart. Last September, for
example, political oppositionist Boris Yeltsin, a former Moscow
party boss, repeatedly warned of an impending disaster. "We are on
the edge of an abyss," Yeltsin told a rapt audience at New York's
Council on Foreign Relations. Yeltsin gave Gorbachev until next
fall to produce results. Others have warned of an actual civil war
by then.
The ramifications of this possibility are so serious that they
ought to worry the West more than they do. Would a complete Soviet
collapse, after all, be a good or a bad thing?
Evidence hinting at such an eventuality is widespread.
Economically, the country is barely functional. At least 43 million
Soviets live below the official poverty level of 75 rubles a month
($1,500 annually) and some regions of the country have resorted to
widespread rationing of even the most essential goods.
Riding atop the economic woes is the horseman of ethnic anarchy
amid the 15 national republics that constitute the Soviet Union.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are nearly at war with each other, Moldavia
has been crippled by ethnically inspired strikes, Georgians are
demanding an end to the "Soviet empire," and in Lithuania the
Communist Party has abolished its own monopoly of power, the most
striking sign of Baltic nationalism to date.
Such radicalism would not be possible without Gorbachev's
glasnost. But the new openness in the Soviet media has also exposed
irrational superstitions reminiscent of the last days of Czar
Nicholas II. The TASS news agency reports with a straight face that
aliens stepped out of UFOs in Voronezh. On TV, psychic healers
appear frequently with supposed cures for everything from obesity
to detached retinas. As in all periods of great stress, the
Christian churches in Russia have seldom been fuller.
The Soviet Union has formidable reserves of resiliency, as it
showed during the crisis of Hitler's invasion. But what if the dark
forebodings of a Soviet screenwriter came true?
A Soviet national catastrophe might take either of two forms:
a "revolution from below" or a coup from the right. A hint of the
first surfaced last summer, when half a million Soviet miners went
on strike. The miners not only won all of their basic demands, but
set up strike committees that became for a while the headquarters
of local political power. Yeltsin himself has called those
committees "the embryos of real people's power." If a new wave of
strikes rolled across the Soviet Union, the nationwide momentum
from below for political change might prove unstoppable.
Last week's narrow defeat of a Supreme Soviet motion to debate
an end to one-party rule showed just how tenuous the authority of
the Soviet Communist Party now is. Striking workers might bring
about not only a collapse of power in Moscow but the snapping of
links to the outlying republics. A wave of secessionism might then
follow, with the probability of murderous ethnic strife in its
wake.
The second scenario of Soviet catastrophe is a coup from the
Soviet "right" engineered by the army, perhaps in conjunction with
the KGB. Though many top Soviets -- including Yeltsin -- dismiss
this scenario, Central Committee members voiced fears of a coup to
Marshall Goldman, a leading American Sovietologist, last summer.
The coup menace is exacerbated by the growing strength of Russian
ultra-nationalist organizations. Extremist groups like Pamyat have
targeted Jews (a paranoid Jewish-Masonic conspiracy theory),
"intellectuals" and "Russophobes" as scapegoats for national
decline. The nationalists are at heart anti-Communist, but their
appeal overlaps with a growing blue-collar nostalgia for the
despotic simplicities of the Stalinist era.
A total collapse of the Soviet Un-ion might create almost as
many global problems as it solved. Regional despotisms like Fidel
Castro's Cuba or Najibullah's Afghanistan would probably wither
quickly, as might many Third World Communist insurgencies. The U.S.
economy would benefit handsomely from vastly reduced defense
expenditures. But the blessings of a Soviet collapse would
certainly be mixed. Just as the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian
Empire after World War I led to Hitler's brutal exploitation of the
resulting power vacuum, so the end of the Pax Sovietica in Eurasia
might touch off an ethnic bloodbath among the squabbling successor
regimes. For University of Alabama historian Hugh Ragsdale, a
Soviet collapse would lead to a disastrous "Balkanization" of
Eurasia and the emergence of "dozens of Khomeinis . . . skulking
incognito among the Sufis and dervishes of the region." The
disappearance of Soviet influence would probably also hasten the
emergence of a united German superstate intimidating to both its
Eastern and Western neighbors.
Gorbachev's own vision remains that of a Soviet Union that is
sufficiently open to be honest about its problems but sufficiently
centralized to remain a powerful Leninist state. The trouble is,
how many other Soviet citizens share it? The glasnost he unleashed
has turned into a dangerous tiger for 280 million people to ride.
If Gorbachev offers no realistic alternative to continued Leninism,
he may be forced to try caging it once more -- which he probably
will -- or to face the dissolution of the "socialist sixth of the
earth."